The congressional majority argues that by cutting back insurance standards, their bill would lower premiums. The Congressional Budget Office, or CBO, estimates that the bill would increase average premiums by 15 to 20 percent in 2018 and 2019, but that it would slightly lower average premiums by 10 percent by 2026.1 The bill would lower average premiums over the long run because older, costlier individuals who can no longer afford plans would drop out of the pool. Additionally, plans would cover a lower share of costs.
But premiums are only one component of enrollees’ overall costs. First, the level of tax credits affects how much enrollees would actually pay in premiums out of pocket. Second, the degree of insurance protection affects how much enrollees would pay in deductibles, copays, and other forms of cost-sharing.
The Center for American Progress and independent experts analyzed the net financial impact of the House bill on enrollees. This net financial impact measures changes in premiums after the application of tax credits, plus cost-sharing.
We estimate that the House bill would increase costs for the average enrollee by $3,174 in 2020, when the new program would go into effect. The impact would be particularly severe for older individuals age 55 to 64, whose costs would increase by $8,329. Individuals with income below 250 percent of poverty would see their costs increase by $4,815.
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