Curator note: There is growing clarity regarding “how we got Trump and how we missed it” in the 2016 presidential election. As this article points out, Republicans built an advantage, over years, based “geography, incumbency and gerrymandering”. The Republican Party and Trump do not represent the majority of American citizens and Congress, controlled by Republicans, has not provided our country with the expected “checks and balances” on Trump. Our role as citizens is to vote in the midterms, support candidates on the front lines, and exercise “checks and balances” since our Congress has failed to do so.
The anti-Trump backlash is about to collide violently with the GOP’s structural, counter-majoritarian advantages in this election — and the winner of the clash will decide whether President Trump will be subjected to genuine oversight or will effectively be given even freer rein to unleash more corruption and more authoritarianism, while expanding his cruel, ethno=-nationalist and plutocratic agenda.
Three new polls this morning confirm that this anti-Trump backlash is running strong, with less than two months to go until the midterm elections:
- A new Quinnipiac University poll finds that Democrats have opened up a 14-point lead in the battle for the House, 52-38. Voters want Congress to be more of a check on Trump by 58 percent to 27 percent.
- A new CNN poll finds that Americans approve of special counsel Robert S. Mueller III’s investigation by 50-38, a new high in CNN polling. By 61-33, Americans say it is examining a “serious matter that should be fully investigated,” as opposed to the “witch hunt” that Trump rage-tweeted about again this morning.
- A new NPR-Marist poll finds that Democrats lead by 12 points in the battle for the House, 50-38. Trump’s approval is at 39-52, making this the fifth recent poll to put Trump below 40 percent.
Crucially, these polls all dovetail with the basic story we’ve seen throughout this cycle, which is that Trump has provoked a backlash among minorities, young people and college-educated and suburban whites, especially women — and even seemingly among independents — that has powered Democratic victories in unlikely places. The new polling finds the backlash is running strong among these groups right now:
- The Quinnipiac poll finds Democrats leading in the generic ballot matchup by 20 points among women, by 15 points among independents, by nine points among college-educated whites (sometimes a Republican leaning group) and by enormous margins among young people, blacks and Hispanics.
- In the Quinnipiac poll, 62 percent of women want Congress to be a check on Trump, 60 percent of independents want this, and 57 percent of college-educated whites want this.
- The CNN poll finds that women approve of the Mueller investigation by 10 points, that independents approve of it by 14 points and that college-educated whites approve of it by 23 points.
- The CNN poll also finds that women think the probe is a serious matter by 67-26, independents think this by 63-29, and college-educated whites think this by 66-31.
- The Marist poll finds Democrats leading in the generic ballot match-up by 57-29 among women, by 43-36 among independents, and by 57-36 among college educated whites.
While Democrats are favored to win the House, we still don’t know whether this lead will hold until Election Day, or whether the Democratic edge will be able to overcome the GOP’s built-in advantages. (Right now, Democrats lead by nearly 10 points in the averages.) The GOP structural edge is rooted in geography, incumbency and gerrymandering, and while these advantages are fading for a host of reasons, most analysts think Democrats still must win the House popular vote by around six or seven points to win the lower chamber. Hence the coming collision noted above.
