Recession signals intensified Wednesday in the United States and in some of the world’s leading economies, as the damage from acrimonious trade wars is becoming increasingly apparent on multiple continents.
The U.S. stock market tumbled to its worst day of the year on Wednesday, after a reliable predictor of looming recessions flashed for the first time since the run-up to the 2008 financial crisis. The Dow Jones industrial average fell 800 points, or about 3 percent, and has lost close to 7 percent over the past three weeks.
Two of the world’s largest economies, Germany and the United Kingdom, appear to be contracting even as the latter forges ahead with plans to leave the European Union. Growth also has slowed in China, which is in a bitter trade feud with the United States. Meanwhile, Argentina’s stock market fell nearly 50 percent earlier this week after its incumbent president was defeated by a left-wing opponent.
From Washington Post letter to the editor regarding this article . . .
Indeed, there are storm clouds on the horizon. Total job creation in the 30 months since Trump took office is down 13.24% from the 30 months immediately before he took office:
Jan 2017 to July 2019 – 5.736 million
July 2014 to Jan 2017 – 6.611 million
And looking at just the last year, job creation is down 40% in the first six months of 2019 compared with the last six months of 2018:
Jan 2019 to July 2019 – 0.844 million
July 2018 to Jan 2019 – 1.402 million
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/PAYEMS
To be fair, GDP is a bit higher under Trump. Over the course of Obama’s presidency (excluding the first two quarters), GDP growth averaged 2.2% per year. During Trump’s presidency so far, GDP growth has averaged 2.6% per year.
However, the deficit fell by 2/3 under Obama, but increased by 1/3 under Trump. That explains most of it.
. . . .
“To be fair, GDP is a bit higher under Trump. ” yes, but you forgot he borrowed an addition $2.6 trillion to make it so.
. . .
I have watched the National Debt Clock over the years, and during Trumpler’s administration, it is oddly, stuck at 22 trillion.
I don’t believe the numbers are being correctly reported from Treasury.
Trump Finally Acknowledges His Tariffs Could Hit Consumers
Global Economic Trouble Is Brewing, and the Trade War Is Only Part of It
Banks Are Paying People To Borrow Money. That’s Alarming News For the Global Economy.
U.S. Businesses Are Taking Down Job Listings As Trump’s Trade War Grows
Republicans Couldn’t Possibly Be More Hypocritical About the Economy
