Curators note: This is a very important report detailing the financial impact on Americans, all of us, from implementing the flawed Republican health plans. Overall costs will rise substantially for Americans. This is common sense. You cannot take huge sums of money away from healthcare, give it to a handful of well to do people in the form of tax cuts, and expect no financial impact on Americans. We will all pay dearly.
DEPARTMENT OF HEALTH & HUMAN SERVICES
Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services
7500 Security Boulevard, Mail Stop N3-01-21
Baltimore, Maryland 21244-1850
OFFICE OF THE ACTUARY
DATE: June 13, 2017
FROM: Paul Spitalnic Chief Actuary
SUBJECT: Estimated Financial Effect of the “American Health Care Act of 2017”
The Office of the Actuary has prepared this memorandum in our longstanding capacity as an independent technical advisor to both the Administration and the Congress. The costs, savings, and coverage impacts shown herein represent our best estimates for the American Health Care Act. The statements, estimates, and other information provided in this memorandum are those of the Office of the Actuary and do not represent an official position of the Department of Health & Human Services or the Administration.
Executive Summary
This memorandum summarizes the Office of the Actuary’s estimates of the financial and coverage effects through 2026 of selected provisions of the “American Health Care Act of 2017” (H.R. 1628), which was passed by the House on May 4, 2017 and which is referred to in this memorandum as the AHCA. Included are the estimated impacts on net Federal expenditures, health insurance coverage, Medicaid enrollment and spending by eligibility group, gross and net premiums and out-of-pocket costs in the individual market, total National Health Expenditures, and the financial status of the Medicare Hospital Insurance (HI) trust fund. Not included in these estimates are the impacts of provisions that would affect other parts of the Federal Budget—such as those associated with repealing taxes or fees that do not have a direct effect on the Medicare or Medicaid program—and Federal administrative costs. A summary of the data, assumptions, and methodology underlying our estimates is available in Appendix A.
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