French voters will go to the polls on Sunday for the first round of presidential elections. In the wake of electoral upheavals around the world, including the victory of Donald J. Trump and Britain’s decision to leave the European Union, the vote is one of several in Europe being closely watched worldwide.
The French Disconnection
For all the talk about the Fillon scandals, Emmanuel Macron’s great prospects or Jean-Luc Mélenchon’s last-minute surge, most commentary about the French election essentially still comes down to one concern: Could Marine Le Pen really become president?
In both casual conversation and specialized coverage, in France, Europe and elsewhere, the answer to that question is often amazingly presumptuous: Ms. Le Pen will make it to the second round of the election, but she won’t become president. Hardly anyone seems to contemplate the possibility of her winning outright, with a simple majority, in the first round of voting this Sunday. Most polls promise the reassuring prospect of a final duel.
