Americans have spent much of the past decade wondering when the economy would recover from the crippling Great Recession. Now, they are considering another question: When, and how, will that recovery end?
This month is the 10th anniversary of the collapse of the investment bank Bear Stearns, the first stirrings of what became a global financial crisis. Next month, in another milestone, the current recovery will become the second-longest American economic expansion on record.
There is no sign that the rebound will end anytime soon. Unemployment is low, job creation is strong and the overall economy seems to be gaining momentum, not losing it. Most economists expect the expansion to continue well into next year, which would make it the longest ever. Many think it could last for years, raising the possibility that President Trump could run for re-election amid the most sustained economic growth in a generation.
Even the Federal Reserve’s intention to impose three interest-rate increases this year — with the first expected on Wednesday — has done little to cloud the outlook.
But many economists also argue that the seeds of the next crisis are being sown today, even if it is several years before they poke above the surface. Good times are meant to give governments an opportunity to get their fiscal houses in order and address long-term challenges. Instead, the United States is piling on debt and adopting policies — immigration restrictions, increased trade barriers, looser financial regulation — that many economists view as counterproductive.
