The economic expansion in the United States celebrated its ninth birthday last month. If it survives another year, it will be the longest on record.
But eventually something will kill it. The question is what, and when.
While it’s impossible to predict the details or timing of the next recession with any confidence, we can identify some emerging threats to the expansion — and with a bit of imagination, picture how the recession of 2020 (or 2022, or whatever year it ends up being) may unfold.
To be clear, the economy is going gangbusters right now. The nation’s G.D.P. rose at an annual rate of 4.1 percent in the second quarter, the strongest quarter of growth since 2014. But when you speak with some of the people who fret and worry about economic risks for a living, a few factors come up repeatedly.
Perhaps most worrisome, many of the culprits in ending the expansion wouldn’t necessarily arise in isolation. Rather, each one could make the others worse, meaning the next recession might have multiple causes.
