It’s always being said that demographics are destiny. But which demographics? Democrats learned painfully in 2016 the meaning of that question, when Donald Trump upended the electoral map by capitalizing on the demographics of today as Democrats pinned their hopes on demographics of tomorrow.
What does the future hold? In the era of President Trump, no predictions are reliable. There are only scenarios and simulations, and a new set of them shows an uncertain future for both parties — in 2020 and beyond. There’s more for Democrats to hang on to, given some of the changes underway in the country, but also enough for Republicans to seize upon, as Trump did, to see paths to victory in future presidential campaigns.
Over time, Republicans probably will have to adapt more than Democrats to avoid bigger presidential defeats. For now, the country’s demographics and shifting voting patterns present trade-offs for both parties, as they try to reach out for support from constituencies that have eluded them while holding to their core groups.
