On the campaign trail, Mr. Trump vowed to “cancel” the climate deal, and his most politically conservative advisers, including Mr. Bannon, have pushed him to follow through. But Mr. Bannon’s influence has waned in recent weeks, while authority has risen for Mr. Trump’s daughter Ivanka and son-in-law, Jared Kushner, who advocate staying in the accord.
Secretary of State Rex W. Tillerson, the former chief executive of Exxon Mobil, has also spoken in favor of “keeping a seat at the table” in the climate pact, and in recent days, major corporations have stepped forward to embrace that position.
While no decision has been made, experts tracking it say that view is gaining traction.
“We do not currently believe the Trump administration plans to withdraw from either Paris agreement,” wrote Kevin Book, an analyst at ClearView Energy Partners, a Washington firm, in a memo to clients on Monday.
Paris Deal Benefits Business
President Trump faces a choice that will echo across his presidency and beyond: whether to remain in the Paris climate agreement. Although most Americans, his own secretaries of state and energy, and heads of state from around the globe are urging the president to stay, he remains undecided. Let us hope that a newly invigorated pro-Paris campaign by many of America’s top C.E.O.s will sway him.
In a recent barrage of public letters and full-page ads, Fortune 100 companies are voicing strong support for remaining in the Paris accord. The breadth of this coalition is remarkable: industries from oil and gas to retail, mining, utilities, agriculture, chemicals, information and automotive. This is as close as big business gets to a consensus position.
American business leaders understand that remaining in the agreement would spur new investment, strengthen American competitiveness, create jobs, ensure American access to global markets and help reduce future business risks associated with the changing climate. Leaving Paris would yield the opposite.
Trump Administration Delays Decision on Leaving Paris Climate Pact
The push has started. On Monday, when Mr. Trump called President-elect Emmanuel Macron of France to congratulate him on his victory, Mr. Macron told the president that enforcing and strengthening the Paris accord would be a top priority for him. Chancellor Angela Merkel of Germany and Prime Minister Justin Trudeau of Canada have told Mr. Trump that they value upholding the Paris deal, and Ms. Tubiana and other climate diplomats say they expect that other G-7 leaders will telephone Mr. Trump to convey the same message before convening in Italy.
“Other world leaders are likely to press on the president not only the importance they place on climate change but also the impact that pulling out will have on the president’s other foreign policy priorities,” said Nigel Purvis, a climate negotiator in the Clinton and Bush administrations. “And I think that will make an impression.”
Opponents of remaining in the Paris pact, including the heads of conservative advocacy groups with close ties to the Trump administration, agreed that the delay could give the pact’s supporters an edge.
“I think the remain camp sees delay to their advantage,” wrote Thomas J. Pyle, an adviser to the Trump transition and the president of the Institute for Energy Research, a group that promotes fossil fuels and opposes most climate change policy. “It also invites a sustained campaign by the greens, media, industry to exert additional resources and pressure. They have more resources to bring to bear.”
Out of Paris Negotiations, A Deal Built for Flexibility
But now, as forces within the Trump administration continue to debate whether to leave the Paris agreement, they face a far different calculus. The accord, agreed to in 2015, is largely nonbinding, imposing no serious legal restraints on the United States or any other nation. While that makes the treaty a less rigorous plan to fight global warming, it also means there are few compelling reasons to exit.
