FAST FACTS ABOUT THE 2016 ELECTION – WHAT THAT MEANS FOR STATES

  • The American expectation, value, or belief, in “one person, one vote” has been severely eroded..
  • The Electoral College was originally designed to favor smaller states, preventing them from being overwhelmed by larger states. The original intent has tilted too far in that direction. Now small and medium states with fewer voters determine election results even when they do not carry the popular vote by wide margins.
  • 65,844,954 votes were cast for the Democratic candidate while 62,979,879 votes were cast for the Republican candidate. The Democratic candidate overwhelmingly won the popular vote by a margin of  2,865,075, yet the Democratic candidate is not president. the map below indicates how much “blue” there is in every state, usually clustered around the urban centers.  See more
  • While some believe that the current president has a mandate, many believe that there cannot be a mandate for “red” policy when almost 3 million more votes were cast for ‘blue” policy.
  • In every single state, both “red” and “blue”, the urban areas voted primarily blue and the rural areas voted primarily red. The result – a red vote is worth much more than a blue vote. Gerrymandering and voter restrictions had a big impact on the 2016 election.  See more
  • It is estimated that under 80,000 votes cast in three states – Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania – determined the results of the 2016 presidential election because the margins of wins were so narrow in those states. Those narrow wins translated into Electoral College votes for the Republican candidate. See more

Think of it. 80,000 people in the US determined the fate of over 320 Million Americans, determined the direction of the leadership of democracy in the US and in the free world.

This result of this election discounted, urban blue votes and heavily weighted red votes. Restoring a system of ‘one person, one vote” will mean that all American votes can be weighted equally.

Another consequence of this imbalance is that all Americans now have a huge interest in the votes of “swing” states since they have such an outsized impact on election results. Donations, candidate support, letters, calls, and grassroots organizing will all cross state lines in the next election in 2018.

Two-thirds of Presidential Campaign Is in Just 6 States

From National Popular Vote

Two-thirds (273 of 399) of the general-election campaign events in the 2016 presidential race were in just 6 states (Florida, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Ohio, Virginia, and Michigan).

94% of the 2016 events (375 of the 399) were in 12 states (the 11 states identified earlier in the year as “battleground” states by Politico and The Hill plus Arizona).  This fact validates the statement by former presidential candidate and Governor Scott Walker of Wisconsin on September 2, 2015, that “The nation as a whole is not going to elect the next president.  Twelve states are.”

 

In addition to the 12 states that received 10 or more campaign events, 14 additional states received scattered attention (1, 2, or 3 events).   Eleven of these states (Georgia, Missouri, California, Washington, Texas, Mississippi, Minnesota, Indiana, Utah, New Mexico, and Connecticut) received a total of 22 Republican visits, but no Democratic visits.  Two of these states (Maine and Nebraska) were visited because those states award some of their electoral votes by congressional district.    One of these states (Illinois) received a Democratic campaign event at a large park located across the river from Davenport, Iowa (the prominent media market and population center in the area and the likely motivation for the event in Illinois).

The map above and chart below show all the post-convention campaign events by the major-party presidential and vice-presidential nominees (Donald Trump, Mike Pence, Hillary Clinton, and Tim Kaine).  The count of Republican campaign events started on Friday July 22, 2016 (the day after the end of the party’s convention), and the count of Democratic campaign events started on Friday July 29 (the day after the end of the party’s convention).  The count ended on Monday November 7, 2016 (the day before Election Day).

The data on which this map is based was compiled by FairVote.  “Campaign events” are defined here as public events in which a candidate is soliciting the state’s voters (e.g., rallies, speeches, fairs, town hall meetings). This count of “campaign events” does not include visits to a state for the sole purpose of conducting a private fund-raising event, participating in a presidential debate or media interview in a studio, giving a speech to an organization’s national convention, attending a non-campaign event (e.g., the Al Smith Dinner in New York City), visiting the campaign’s own offices in a state, or attending a private meeting.

State Total D events R events Electoral votes Population 2010
Florida 71 36 35 29 18,900,773
North Carolina 55 24 31 15 9,565,781
Pennsylvania 54 26 28 20 12,734,905
Ohio 48 18 30 18 11,568,495
Virginia 23 5 18 13 8,037,736
Michigan 22 8 14 16 9,911,626
Iowa 21 7 14 6 3,053,787
New Hampshire 21 6 15 4 1,321,445
Colorado 19 3 16 9 5,044,930
Nevada 17 8 9 6 2,709,432
Wisconsin 14 5 9 10 5,698,230
Arizona 10 3 7 11 6,412,700
Georgia 3 3 16 9,727,566
Maine 3 3 4 1,333,074
New Mexico 3 3 5 2,067,273
Indiana 2 2 11 6,501,582
Minnesota 2 2 10 5,314,879
Missouri 2 2 10 6,011,478
Nebraska 2 1 1 5 1,831,825
California 1 1 55 37,341,989
Connecticut 1 1 7 3,581,628
Illinois 1 1 20 12,864,380
Mississippi 1 1 6 2,978,240
Texas 1 1 38 25,268,418
Utah 1 1 6 2,770,765
Washington 1 1 12 6,753,369
Alabama 0 9 4,802,982
Alaska 0 3 721,523
Arkansas 0 6 2,926,229
Delaware 0 3 900,877
District of Columbia 0 3 601,723
Hawaii 0 4 1,366,862
Idaho 0 4 1,573,499
Kansas 0 6 2,863,813
Kentucky 0 8 4,350,606
Louisiana 0 8 4,553,962
Maryland 0 10 5,789,929
Massachusetts 0 11 6,559,644
Montana 0 3 994,416
New Jersey 0 14 8,807,501
New York 0 29 19,421,055
North Dakota 0 3 675,905
Oklahoma 0 7 3,764,882
Oregon 0 7 3,848,606
Rhode Island 0 4 1,055,247
South Carolina 0 9 4,645,975
South Dakota 0 3 819,761
Tennessee 0 11 6,375,431
Vermont 0 3 630,337
West Virginia 0 5 1,859,815
Wyoming 0 3 568,300
Total 399 151 248 538 309,785,186

VOTER FRAUD IN STATES

The president continues, as of January 2017, to assert that there is a big problem with voter fraud in the US. He seems to base his claims on the assertions of a single individual that has not provided any data whatsoever. No one, including the president, has come forward with evidence that there is any voter fraud. No state indicates that there is a voter fraud problem, the PEW Charitable Trusts, a well-respected, non biased, research organization, issued a report that indicated there was no voter fraud. See more

Some citizens are not concerned that the president is continuing to make accusations and raise an issue about voter fraud without providing evidence. Others are very concerned that the president of the United States would continue to assert voter fraud without presenting evidence, continue to disregard overwhelming facts asserting there is no voter fraud, challenge experts, and encourage American citizens to not believe facts and to only listen to him. There is something afoot when a person asserts that busload of Massachusetts people drove over the border into New Hampshire to vote causing Trump to lose the state — and people believe it.

Many consider this a very serious problem because, to the extent that a president can convince Americans that they should not pay attention to facts, the danger a propaganda campaign from an authoritarian government increases dramatically. We have common ground in that we all want an honest and fair voting and election system. However, agreeing on facts is essential to developing solutions and reducing partisanship. Where we do not agree on facts with evidence, it is difficult, if not impossible, to reduce partisanship.

This is where we are today – what are the facts and where is the evidence? What do we do about a large segment of the population that does not believe facts and have been conditioned to ignore what is termed the “mainstream media” (MSM) by conservative talk radio, alt-right media and conspiracy theorists?

STATE WATCH

There will be an individual page for each state with facts about how each state is doing economically and in other ways. One of the first state watch pages will be Kansas. Kansas has implemented “red” policies beginning in 2010 when Governor Brownback was elected and Republicans continued to dominate the legislature as they have for years in Kansas. Kansas has always been Republican but this is the first time that their complete dominance led to the implementation of “red” policies. Kansas is an experiment. Let’s see how they are doing.

Below is a table of how each state Electoral College voted in the 2016 election.

VOTED BLUE VOTED RED

 

1 California 1 Alabama
2 Colorado 2 Alaska
3 Connecticut 3 Arizona
4 DC 4 Arkansas
5 Delaware 5 Florida
6 Hawaii Georgia
7 Illinois 5 Idaho
8 Part of Maine 6 Indiana
9 Maryland 7 Iowa
10 Massachusetts 8 Kansas
11 Minnesota 9 Kentucky
12 Nevada 10 Louisiana
13 New Hampshire 11 Montana
14 New Jersey  12 Michigan
15 New Mexico 13 Mississippi
16 New York 14 Missouri
17 Oregon  15 Nebraska
18 Rhode Island 16 North Carolina
19 Vermont 17 North Dakota
20 Virginia 18 Ohio
21 Washington 19 Oklahoma
21 Pennsylvania
22 South Carolina
23 South Dakota
24 Tennessee
25 Texas
26 Utah
27 West Virginia
28 Wisconsin
29 Wyoming

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Common Ground
We don’t need to search any further for common ground in our country. We have it.
We all want the same things – a safe, prosperous, free, democratic nation with opportunity for all. At the same time, we will all be harmed if our democracy, our free press, our Constitution and our core American values are threatened. We will all certainly be harmed if reckless behavior triggers any number of potential armed conflicts.

None of us know how this will all play out so let's make a deal. Let’s get up to speed on the issues, establish some facts, take action and watch what happens together . . .